Original-Research: Nabaltec AG (von NuWays AG)

Original-Research: Nabaltec AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu Nabaltec AG

Unternehmen: Nabaltec AG

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: Kaufen
seit: 26.04.2024
Kursziel: EUR 25.00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Final FY23 as expected, solid start into FY24
2023 figures inline with prelims. To recap: FY23 sales decreased by 8.5%
yoy to € 200m, largely driven by the highly cyclical Specialty Alumina
segment, which reported sales of € 57.8m (-18.5% yoy). On the contrary,
Functional Fillers’ sales decreased by only 3.9% to € 142.3m, as revenues
from boehmite and gap fillers grew by 6.1% yoy to € 22.4m, whereas boehmite
alone showed a 9% yoy sales decline. Positively, the FY EBIT margin stood
at 9.2% (-4.2pp yoy), € 18.3m absolute EBIT. Despite the muted operational
performance and a 14% increase of working capital, the company generated €
2m of FCF.
Nabaltec also released solid Q1 prelims, which render the FY24 guidance
sensible. Q1 sales decreased 5.3% yoy to € 54m, largely due to a tough
comparable base (Q1 FY23 with 4% growth vs a 12% decline during the
remainder of FY23). Compared to the average of the past three quarters, Q1
sales were up 14%. In fact, the EBIT margin slightly increased by 0.2pp yoy
to 9.3% (absolute EBIT of € 5m).
With this, the lower end of the FY24 EBIT margin guidance looks well in
reach, if not conservative as it implies a margin of only 6.2% for the
remainder of the year. This compares to our 8.2% margin estimate for the
rest of FY24e (eNuW: 3.9% yoy sales growth). As a reminder, management
expects to grow FY24 sales slightly with an EBIT margin of 7-9%. Growth is
expected to be carried by a slight increase of boehmite volumes (+1kt yoy),
further growing gap filler demand and improving utilization rates at its US
plants, while the remainder of F.F. and S.A. should remain rather flat yoy.
Boehmite retains plenty of potential. During the past two years, the
boehmite sales contribution decreased from € 24.2m in FY21 to € 17.3m last
year. The main reason behind this was a strong oversupply in China
(lacklustre EV demand growth), the core market for EV battery production
and a slower than initially expected ramp up of production capacities in
Europe and the US. Yet, with demand for ceramic coating solutions expected
to 4x until 2028, boehmite should return to growth; eNuW: from € 17m in
FY23 to € 25m by FY25e (conservatively below market growth).
In sum, Nabaltec is a cyclical company that has passed the demand trough
with a solid balance sheet, several structural growth drivers for core
products and upside from boehmite. Valuation seem to lag behind with shares
trading on 9/7x EV/EBIT FY24/25e. We confirm our BUY rating with an
unchanged € 25 PT based on FCFY 24e and keep Nabaltec in our NuWays Alpha

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Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG  - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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